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The sky is falling! Will the freight rate for the US West Coast exceed 10,000?

2025-05-16

Starting from May 14, the mutual tariff exemption between China and the United States will be officially implemented within 90 days. China will reduce the tariff on US imports from 125% to 10%; the United States will reduce the tariff on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%.

The global shipping and logistics market responded quickly to this sudden gift that far exceeded the industry's expectations!

It is very likely to exceed 10,000

Less than 24 hours after China and the United States reduced their tariffs, the atmosphere of the entire market changed, and all parties began to respond immediately. Before the first wave of bookings from export companies arrived, major shipping companies announced a substantial adjustment of US shipping rates.

The 500-700 GRI on May 15 was just an "appetizer". According to current news, the GRI increase starting from June 1 ranges from 2,000 to 3,000, and the US West Coast has already reached 6,000 US dollars!

As the world's largest container shipping company, Mediterranean Shipping Company MSC plans to launch a peak season surcharge PSS of up to USD1600/2000/2000 from June 1.

It is expected that after the price increase, the freight rates for large containers at basic ports in the western United States, including VAN/LGB/LAX/OAK/SEA, will return to USD6000/40 feet.

The increase to USD6000 is equivalent to a sharp increase of 156% in freight rates in two weeks. The short time and large magnitude are astonishing!

Hapag-Lloyd's online quotation data shows that Hapag-Lloyd's latest QQ spot rate (till WK 22, has soared to US$6,000-7,000:

The US route cannot increase prices at will, and must be reported to the FMC 30 days in advance. This shows that the shipowner has made early filings, and GRI or PSS can be added on the 1st and 15th of each month. The increase can be lower than the registered amount, but not higher.

This also means that shipowners may continue to increase prices on the 1st and 15th of each month in the future. Maintaining the current increase, the US route freight rate in July is likely to exceed 10,000.

According to this trend, the famous "diamond-level" space during the epidemic will also be repeated in June: US West 7,500, US East 8,500.


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